Above: Cardano (ADA) Daily Chart
Given that Cardano, like every other altcoin (except perhaps, Etheruem) is correlated to the movement of Bitcoin, I think it’s a good idea to pay attention to any evidence of short term sell pressure. Seasonally, we’re in a time where risk-on assets get sold and people go into cash. Currencies like the Yen and USD become more favorable to hold and stronger against other currencies. Gold and silver like to increase as well (Gold was up almost $22, and silver closed almost +4% on the day). Overall, Cardano’s technical position remains strong and consistent – but we have not seen any follow through from the bulls. Personally, I need to see a close above the prior all-time high and a retest of that prior high to confirm support before I jump on the bullish band wagon. I am more bearish today give Bitcoin’s present condition. I still like the support zone between 0.84 and 0.94 for Cardano. Below that it looks like a fast trip down to the mid 0.30 range. Watch this price level very closely this week: 1.1544. If Cardano closes at or below that price level, watch out below. At that price level, Cardano will have dropped below the Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen, Senkou Span A, and Senkou Span B while the Lagging Span will have dropped below Senkou Span A and the candlesticks. That could usher in a longer corrective move here very soon.
Above: Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Daily Chart
Expanding on the analysis form last week and the video for today, I want to touch a little more on Bitcoin’s price action and current setup. First things first: Bitcoin is trading inside the Cloud (Kumo). It’s a horrid, nasty, evil place. Why? The Cloud represent volatility, indecision and whipsaws. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: It’s the place where trading accounts go to die. The current candlestick formation is a common bearish continuation pattern known as a bear flag, but before we would likely see a clear breakdown lower, we’ll more than likely see some hella choppy price action between 56740 and 52424. The two near term support levels for Bitcoin are the Tenkan-Sen at 53,997 and Senkou Span B at 52,450. Senkou Span B is really the make or break point for Bitcoin to maintain a bullish bias. Senkou Span B is the hardest and most difficult place for price to move above or below. It represents the strongest support/resistance level in the Ichimoku system. Additionally, when we see a Senkou Span B line that is flat like it is now – that’s a sign of strength. It’s a massively strong support level, but it would be equally strong for the bears if it fails to hold as support. I have the 161.8% Fibonacci Extension level at 36,935 as an area to take profit on a short or to put in a buy limit order(s). Regardless of the direction here – it’s going to be choppy until there is a clear break outside of the Cloud.